Ali Haider Ismail

Ali Haider Ismail

PhD Student in UCLA, specializing in monetary economics

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A list of all the posts and pages found on the site. For you robots out there, there is an XML version available for digesting as well.

Pages

Posts

portfolio

publications

Paper Title Number 4

Published in GitHub Journal of Bugs, 2024

This paper is about fixing template issue #693.

Recommended citation: Your Name, You. (2024). "Paper Title Number 3." GitHub Journal of Bugs. 1(3).
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research

Friedman-Schwartz vs. Tobin: A Modern Reassessment of the Great Depression

Published:

We revisit the Friedman-Schwartz vs. Tobin debate about the Federal Reserve’s role in the Great Depression by using modern econometric and quantitative-modeling tools. We calibrate a general equilibrium model with a banking sector and an interbank market, building off Bianchi and Bigio (2022). Our model offers novel contributions to the literature through its banking-focused approach that interconnects money, credit, and output. This framework allows us to leverage aggregate banking data from the era, including interbank rates, to examine the Federal Reserve’s policy pass-through into the aggregate economy. The model allows us to weigh the relative importance of various shocks affecting banks and the economy during the period. It is well-suited for conducting counterfactual analyses of policies proposed in Friedman and Schwartz’s “A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960,” particularly an expansion of discount window lending, while accounting for the constraints imposed by the gold standard.

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Welfare Implications of Reserve Regimes

Published:

We develop a general equilibrium model to quantify the welfare costs of alternative reserve regimes. Banks in our model face stochastic deposit flows requiring settlement through reserves, creating a precautionary demand shaped by frictions in the over-the-counter interbank market. We establish a novel irrelevance theorem, providing conditions under which interbank frictions and reserve quantities have no welfare implications. With frictions, however, banks’ liquidity management materially affects credit provision and welfare. Quantitatively, we find that increasing inflation to 10% while holding the real discount window rate constant generates welfare costs of 0.8% of consumption—comparable to Lucas (2000) despite our model excluding currency. The model reproduces the post-2008 tripling of reserve holdings and predicts that raising the real return on reserves initially reduces output as reserves crowd out productive loans, with this effect reversing only after deposit demand becomes satiated. Our results demonstrate that the welfare implications of returning to scarce reserves depend critically on implementation details.

talks

teaching

Econ 106M - Financial Markets and Financial Institutions

Undergraduate course, UCLA, Economics, 2021

This course examines the critical role of financial intermediaries—including banks, insurance companies, and securities firms—in the global economy. Students study the day-to-day operations of these institutions and how they attract savings and create investments through financial services, securities, loans, and advice. Core topics include the time value of money, risk analysis, bonds and the term structure of interest rates, equities, derivatives, and financial regulation. The course emphasizes the Federal Reserve’s role in monetary policy and its impact on money supply and interest rates to achieve price stability and full employment. Special attention is given to financial crises, including the 2007-2009 crisis, examining whether such catastrophic losses can be prevented or mitigated. Classes begin with discussions of current financial news, applying analytical frameworks to real-world events, and the course includes a required research paper on a finance topic of the student’s choosing.

Econ 102 - Intermediate Macroeconomics

Undergraduate course, UCLA, Economics, 2022

This course introduces core concepts in macroeconomic theory and their real-world applications. Topics include business cycles, economic growth (including the Solow growth model), inflation, unemployment, and monetary policy. The first half covers long-run growth models and classical economic theory, while the second half explores Keynesian economics through the IS-LM and IS-MP-PC models, international macroeconomics, and modern approaches to monetary policy. The course includes an Excel assignment to deepen understanding of key models and emphasizes connecting theoretical frameworks to current economic events.

Econ 11 - Microeconomic Theory

Undergraduate course, UCLA, Economics, 2022

This course provides a rigorous introduction to the fundamental tools of microeconomics. The first half focuses on consumer choice theory and demand-side economics, including utility maximization, expenditure minimization, and income and substitution effects. The second half develops supply-side economics through production functions, cost minimization, and profit maximization, culminating in both partial and general equilibrium analysis. Students learn to approach economic questions analytically and build the technical foundation necessary for advanced work in economics.

Econ 162 - Monetary Policy

Undergraduate course, UCLA, Economics, 2022

This advanced course examines how monetary policy operates in the United States during the 21st century, with particular focus on revolutionary changes in Federal Reserve policy. Students study theoretical models and historical events from the 19th century through modern times, using Ben Bernanke’s “21st Century Monetary Policy” as a foundation. The second half emphasizes practical application through group presentations modeled after the college Fed Challenge, where students analyze current economic conditions, forecast key variables, identify risks, and develop policy recommendations for the Federal Reserve. The course develops both analytical and communication skills essential for economics careers.